Lyon favored by bettors (see our dropping odds and money way sections) for numerous reasons. They can still have slim hopes for the CL qualification round (slim because Lille need to lose the last 2 games and Lyon win both of them) but also save at least the Europa League qualification where Marseille is pressing 2 points behind with 2 rounds to play. 5th spot in France (due to PSG winning cup final vs Lyon + CL qualified), means Europa league so Lyon and Marseille are fighting badly to get it. Lyon also got a quite okay form recently despite losing last round vs Marseille 2-4. They beat PSG few rounds ago etc. Lyon also badly missed Grenier + Gourcuff for many rounds and midfield was clearly weaker offensively. Grenier is back since few times when Gourcuff will be back here. Additionally, Koné is also back in defense after being out last round.
Lorient got nothing to play here, they tend be have some slight advantage at home with their artificial turf but rather average if not disappointing when playing away from home. A lot of absentees recently and especially for this game with now best scorer Aboubakar , 3rd best scorer Jouffre as well. Solid Ecuelé Manga in defense is suspended and that is quite a blow in the backline. GK Audard still out = few other minors players but Audard was a big mess all season so his backup is rather better than him.
Motivation, injuries, form and real strength of these two teams support the dropping in odds from around 1.55 to 1.46 average when Asia moved up from 1 line Handicap on Lyon (from -1 to -1.25). 93% of the money placed at Betfair also going on home (35K€ out of 37K on this game)
Eibar one of the main contenders for Liga 1 promotion is still under the danger of one of the actual play off zone team comeback like Las Palmas, Murcia or Cordoba asBarca B can’t promote (even more team in nightmare scenario of losing streak vs other teams winning streak). 3 rounds to go before the end of the regular season and Eibaris 2nd just 2 points behind Deportivo. The form is average but at home they are quite solid with a 9-5-4 23:12 record. Best scorer Jota is back for this game and It increase their chances to win this one of course.
Ponferradina still need few points to be sure to avoid any relegation danger but they will focus on taking the remaining and badly needed points at home where they are the 2nd BEST TEAM of this division! Here it will be away from home where, at the opposite, they are very weak! 2nd WORST team of this division away from home with an awful 2-7-915:27 record! Few missing but not a lot called as crucial ones, maybe good to notice Castaneda in defense.
Dropping odds in European bookmakers supporting this supposed unbalanced match with average drops of 0.10 when Asia dropped slightly more with an average drop of 0.17.
Augsburg showed a good motivation lately (despite nothing to play for anymore) with two deserved wins and condemned Braunschweig to Div 2 with a 90th min deserved goal. They beat HSV one round earlier and they will try for this LAST ROUND in Germany, to offer the best possible end to their fans for this season. No special big missing and once again it is mostly on their offensive midfielders that they will rely to take this game.
Frankfurt has also nothing to play here and their quite weak offensive power could be a problem to get a result here. 3rd worst attack overall + away from home of this division, they have not won in 4 games and managed to score only in the crazy 5 goals game vs Hannover. Barnetta and Flum still outs in the midfield line won’t help to get a compact team here to prevent the 3 other strong midfielders of the home team (who are also Augsburg best 3 scorers!) to enjoy this match.
Odds dropped average of 0.10 in European bookmakers on home when Asia recorded a bigger change with 1 entire Handicap line move from -1 to -1.25 around the 1.90 mark! 82% of the market on Betfair placed on home as well.
Written by ARSENE
Category: Daily Analysis
Written by: Arsene
Date: May 10, 2014