11th May. Market Moves of the Day

 Italy Serie A 11:30 Atalanta Vs Milan.

Atalanta will be missing here many players especially in the defensive line with 3 regular outs (including central defense). The Colombian Former PSG/Milan defender Mario Yepes along with the other “key” Stendardo and even Lucchini. Adding players like Livaja or cover players Estigarribia or Cazzola to the missing list. They have nothing to play anymore sitting in the middle of the table and we could feel that a bit in their recent results (have not won in 5 rounds).

Milan AC at the total opposite just beat the “enemy” Inter 1-0 and won 6 out of the last 7 games. They are still chasing more than never the Europa league spot that is some point ahead and need to keep winning during the last 2 rounds to come and hoping for a small miracle (teams ahead of them to lose and taking 3 points each match themselves). Old fox Abbiati is suspended in the nets and that is the “only” worry here about missing players.

Here bettors supports a win from the “Rossonieri” with a small fall in European markets of 0.06 pts average when Asian markets adjusted it of 1 entire handicap line from -0.75 to -1
Money placed at Betfair also clearly on the away side with about 91% placed on Milan to win (about 154K€ in total on this game ~ 144K€ on Milan).


 England Premier 16:00 Norwich VS Arsenal


Norwich is going to be relegate today as even with a win (despite their more than awful form and morale), the +/- difference with WBA is too high. Well Norwich completely succumbed to pressure in the last rounds of this season (winning 1 out of last 10 games, losing 7 of them!). And lucky was the goalless draw taken vs Chelsea last round as “blues” wasted some good chances and placed so badly their numerous shots.. Fox, Pilkington or Yobo still out but it would not change many parameters there..

Arsenal now just aim to finish in style the C.L spot qualif is in hands and nothing more to hope in this last round. Their recent form is fine with 4 straight wins + Gibbs and Wilkshere coming back very likely in this game, it is another boost in the lineup.

Markets logically favor the not that reliable “Gunners” to finish here the job especially because Norwich form and probable morale are in their shoes, at the bottom level…
Arsenal price is down average 0.11 pts in European bookmakers when Asia moved down approx. of 0.20 pts! BEtfair received about 99K€ on this game and 88K€ (89%) went logically on “Gunners”.


Italy 1 14:00: Livorno VS Fiorentina

Livorno is supposed to fight hardly to keep hope to escape relegation but the truth is that their motivation/level of play is too weak. They have not won in 8, won only 1 game in 12 rounds, allowed average 2.06 goal per game and allowed goal(s) in 89% of their game this season. After the regular Luci out since many rounds now in the midfield line, they got the regular defender Mbaye injured and it costed for sure more goals. Recently, speedy offensive weapon Emeghara picked up an injury as well, and now two “hearts” of this team with key midfielder Greco and BEST SCORER Paulinho are suspended! A bit too much likely versus a very hungry and motivated “Viola”.

Ok Fiorentina did an awful game vs Sassuolo, pushing big but defense and especially Gk was a mess. Yes their main Gk Neto is still out along with Gomez (but he is injured since a while now), few other less important players on the missing list also. Fiorentina lost points badly to Sassuolo last round and should be eager to take these here! They are still in race for Europa League and need to take point(s) to almost guarantee it. Bouncing back on style after the really shameful defensive display vs Sassuolo is also an objective for defense and back up Gk Rosati here!
Not much money placed on this game in Exchanges like Betfair Markets (mainly focused on English Premiership title battle when talking about money placed in Betfair but odds have not fluctuate much, very logically as both Liverpool and Manchester City are quite easy to estimate here.) But Asian got quite some moves on Fiorentina to win here with around 1 Handicap line move (from very early openers at -0.50 into now -0,75). European bookmakers registered average 0.7 pts down on “viola”.


Category: Daily Analysis

Written by: Arsene

Date: May 11, 2014