13th May. Market Moves of the Day

France Ligue 2  19:00  Caen VS Nimes

Caen and Nimes is a strange match. Because both team will need one point to be promoted in L1 for Caen and 1 point for Nimes means to avoid relegation. Many moves, talks and bets from all around the world on the DRAW as outcome! 69% of the bets at Betfair (60K€) placed on “X”. We are not lover of these kinds of theories, who sometimes happens, sometime not. A smart punter would have taken very early the highest price on draw and trade it later, now the price on the DRAW is for sure nothing worth, no value at all.

Caen is the best attack of L2! 62 goals scored in 36 games! Here without 2-3 players who are not key like Saez replaced by Agouazi. Montaroup is still injured (since 4 games already) and Felipe Saad since a long time. Caen was already involved in 1-2 strange games where much money has been placed in the outcomes who happened quite a “fishy” way. But well we cannot see fixing behind every rumor, moves or even an outcome who could suit both team yes it is true here. Sport aspect speaking, Caen just lost badly 1-3 at home vs Tours and fans were really disappointed by the display of their players but also because it was the perfect chance to be for sure promoted in L1 in front of their fans etc. Finally it ended an awful way, no fiesta , nothing! Here it could be a fire stadium and a win in the end but that is only our way of thinking.

Nimes without quite some players and 2 of them missing for this game are quite important: Ousmane Cissokho (suspended) who scored 5 but also played a lot of games with the “Crocos” from Nimes. Sarte in defense joining the already injured Fanchone on the sideline knowing that Nimes already lost in the middle of the season, a solid regular in defense (Mohamed Benyahia) and their main Gk also picked up an injury in the middle of the season. So they were clearly weaker from mid-season (for an already relegation fight level team with a short bench) and a quite poor record of the 3rd worst attack of L2. Some crucial points earned lately with two wins in the last 2 rounds vs Laval and unmotivated Angers.


Italy B 18:30 Crotone VS Latina

Some quite drops on X2 or away in Asia.  Latina victory dropped average of 0.30 pts in European bookmakers dropped of average 0.10 pts on +0.25 line.

Crotone as many other teams, only needs few points to be sure to get in play offs. They can’t chase anymore the direct promotion (Only their today opponent Latina can, Cesena could but with a miracle that 2 other above lose everything with the biggest possible negative goal difference + they would need to win by big favorable scores…). With their actual form, injuries etc, they will rather try to keep a playoff spot and that will be already a lot. Defender Ligi is still injured + now with a bunch of yellow cards picked up last match, they have 4 suspended players!  The more important is their top scorer Bernardeschi (10 goals) when 3rd scorer Cataldi is in this 4 players  list as well along with another striker (Bidaoui ) and solid defender Del Prete! Form speaking, they are quite good with only 2 losses in their last 10 games (but 4 draws also) and at home a usually quite reliable team with 1 loss only on their pitch last 10 home games! Yes but here the missing list is full of regulars…

 Latina quite successful lately with 5 wins out of their last 7 games! 3rd best defensive record of this division, they are 4 points behind a direct promotion spot (with 2 rounds to go). Their last game was quite impressive as despite “only” a 2-0 win, they got a solid 60% of ball possession, almost as many shots as opponent but a big % of shots on target (what always helps to win a game). Okay they needed finally opponent to “explode” under the pressure and pick up 2 red cards to finally take the lead and add a second goal at the last min of the game, but the way they played was quite good and motivation is still quite high. Excepted long term missing Chiricò and Baldan, they are without Marco Crimi since 3 rounds already, got Pepe Figliomeni injured before the previous game and now Abdel Ghezzal added to these missing. Not impressive scoring season by him so not a blow at all for Latina!


International Friendly  19:45 Germany VS Poland

No real interest here by big punters due to the uncertainty of motivation, teams level and how these two “C” teams will play with most players not used to play together.

Germany, really disappointing during their previous games (not with the same players but the overall dynamic has a kind of problem) will rely on U21 + “reserve” players in order to give a chance to few guys to eventually impress the NT coach if few spots are still possible to get for the Brazil WC.

Poland will for their part, rely mostly on local players and for sure their desire to resist and even maybe do more than that vs the big name German team will be good, but the level of play could be a bit short still.

Really nothing special to analyze excepted 97K€ wagered on this game (see our money way section) in Betfair with 91% of these (53K€) on Germany to win… Not surprising but probably not worth getting involved with so many unknown parameters..


Category: Daily Analysis

Written by: Arsene

Date: May 13, 2014