25th May. Market Moves of the Day


Sweden – Allsvenskan  14:00 Kalmar Ff VS Helsingborg

One of the biggest move in Asia at today game list with opening odds on -0.25 home around 2.16 now 1.80ish zone! Home got 57% of the stakes in Betfair  where we are aware that Scandinavia is not the favourite area to bet so in our eyes the move in Asia + 0.11 pts in European bookmakers is a bit more interesting to call it as a drop.

Kalmar among top 3 until last round and best defense etc, was punished completely by Hacken 1-4. Exactly as we described here in our analysis, Hacken is very offensive minded at home, their defense still showed some signs of weakness but despite a veryyyy high % of their shots in a clinical way (8 shots out of 9 in total were on target), Kalmar managed only to score once… There is days like that sometime to forget and the best way to put them behind is to be back on trap right after, and that is also one of the reason why people are taking them. The other ones are Strength, awful level displayed by opponent this season etc.. Thorbjornsson and Hallberg are out (plus 3 other long term inured) for the home team.

Helsingborg also as described in our previous analysis of their final cup game versus Elfsborg, played with fire if they thought to give up some points and power in league to focus on the cup. With a quite weak season in league (maybe due to cup focus or not), they also lost cup final match vs Elfsborg and now back in league with only that to play and a quite broken morale likely. This is another factor that makes this game complicated when playing away at Kalmar who need a win asap to forget their previous match! 3 wins in 9 league rounds, something is worrying here!


Italy Serie B 19:30 Cittadella VS Empoli

Very big money placed on DRAW here. Usual end of season Italian stuff. Cittadella need 1 point to avoid relegation and Empoli need 1 to be sure to keep direct promotion (and avoid play off). So even without thinking any arrangement, it seems logical that both team will not risk anything and 1 point will be ok for both.

92K€ out of 104K€ placed on this game (87%) on DRAW AT BETFAIR.

Still Marino out like last round + 2 other long term injured players. Important Busellato is suspended in the midfield line.

Castiglia and Laurini are doubtful when important defender Hysaj is back along with a bench striker.


Italy Serie B Ternana VS Palermo

Here also quite some big bets and drops on away team. They are promoted in Serie A and facing a team fighting against relegation yes. But Palermo will still be too strong and enough motivated to go for the win here most people think. Price was simply judged too hig in European bookmakers first with an average drop of around 0.20 from 2.7 to 2.50 zone and then Asian on DRAW NO BET line with 1.90 zone to 1.70 zone. Betfair got also 29K€ on Palermo.

Pisano is back for this game after missing previous match and long term injured Morganella is finally back but should start on the bench due to his probable short fitness. Lazar is in NT selection, Vitiello injured and Vazquez suspended. Last game was the only downfall (loss 1-2) we could see in their recent period and that is great because for a team already promoted for sure since many rounds, they showed a great pro approach. We can even say that last game who ended in a loss, was not a fair one to point out with finger as a potential start of “holidays in mind” approach because they got a red card in 45th min and then from 1-1 score and 1 man down, few teams can prevent the defeat to happen…

Viola, Maiello and Farkas still injured since few games among the regulars for Ternana and Zito and Falletti are back. Main GK Brignolli is still injured since few games + longer term Lauro, Botta and Dianda. Only 2 wins last 8 games (5 losses) for this team who is still in small danger of relegation or playoff.

Facing the best team, leader easily, best attack and defense of the league + best away team, best away attack, best away defense of this whole division is for sure something that should have been priced a bit lower by bookmakers in early odds, likely some rotation plans or some hopes to see them giving up a bit with focus are the explanation of the Away value hit earlier by smart bettors. 

Category: Daily Analysis

Written by: Admin

Date: May 25, 2014