Calm day today but few International games + few small leagues..
Clearly the favorite bet of today list for the Betfair market in term of money placed on HOME (129K€) and quite logical (even if it is more to put in a double rather than bet it at lowish odds alone). Asia And European bookmakers have not recorded drops as this one was quite clear to anticipate and estimate.
England drew vs Ecuador but already the head in the WC and earlier beat the reserve team of Peru 3-0 and Denmark 1-0 the game before. Honduras will suffer big here + in WC as they are only defending and playing with one good head skilled guy in attack final point. They lost badly vs Turkey or weak Japan so what with English guys who are maybe not going to trash them as not needed but anything else than a win by Uk guys would be a really huge surprise. Honduras are committing quite many fouls, physical approach but that won’t hurt England as some other teams as English guys are really used to play with their body and a quite rude football in their own league.
Leader of this division vs 10th. 2nd best attack and best defense vs a team who have won 1 game out of last 5 rounds. H2H is clearly on home side as well.
European bookmakers moved down a bit on low odds home of 0.04 pts average when Asian bookmakers moved up from a low priced -0.75 on home to -1 (or high priced -1 to -1.25 high price).
Here that is clearly the level difference and the lack of appealing games today that made people trying their chance here. In our view, if -0.75 early was an option, now the -1.25 is maybe not worth at all really as away team despite being quite an average team, is usually quite an hard nut to crack away from home with a defensive approach and compact lines, when they are suffering a lot at home with a very poor record as their opponent let them the ball possession (which doesn’t suit small and limited teams).
Odds going down average of 0.06 pts on home when Asia even recorded 0.16 pts down on home -1.50 AH average.
Cameroon finally back at home after many games away from their fans and despite many funny (or boring depends who lives them) stories internally as often in African national teams, they will face a team who is going here without any goal in mind and likely already suffering between the weather, hotel/roads/travel qualities and so on… Fanatic stadium people will of course support in a festive approach the Lions here and Moldova to wonder if the holidays will finally come after this match for their tired heads and legs…
Category: Daily Analysis
Written by: Arsene
Date: Jun 07, 2014