12th June. Market Moves of the Day

World Cup 2014: Group A : Kick of 20:00  Brazil Vs Croatia

Brazil odds went down slightly of average 0.03 pts on home in European bookmakers when Asian Bookmakers went down of average 0.17 pts on Home -1.50. Some trusted tipsters or usually clever bettors have already hit earlier the home team mostly based on Croatia defense quality and magical attacking poser that Brazil have. 3,8M€!!! staked on home at Betfair, huge moment, huge game, huge name and many out founded also straight win on home as medium value early (yes even 1.05 could be solid value if your fair estimation is 1.01 for example ;-)

Yes that will all or nothing, glorious start or giant pressure already depending of the outcome here.  Brazil well know a bit lazy and disappointing when it is friendlies or a bit more meaningless games like recently vs Serbia where they hardly won and could have deserved a worst result. Still that these players are for big majority of them, used to pressure as playing or who played in big clubs, and even the ones playing locally are used to bug noise big fanatic fans as it is often the case there.

Brazil with no real troubles about lineup when Croatia will have to cope without their best potential in front Mario Mandzukic along with Simunic suspended there and Pranjic also won’t play… Some talents lost there and that will be short in attack in our eyes.

Here we feel it is either a good home win 1X2 bet at the best possible odds for the remaining small value margin offered or skip as too many scenarios are analyzed and studied but when many unknown better to take the safer which should be this one. Also an exotic bet could be Croatia to kick off ;-) Some info and nice stats, inside talks put it as solid value at Dafabet/ibcbet 1.95 in Croatia to kick off. Let see ;-)

Norway : Tippeligaen 17:00 Bodo/glimt VS Molde

2nd biggest money size at Betfair today with 20K€ on Molde to win! European bookmakers moved it average of 0.10 pts down when Asian bookmakers moved average of 0.09 pts on -0.50 AH as well.

Bodo still without few players as last rounds (same ones) and ended their 4 games winning streak last round by a loss 0-1 vs Sandnes. Their defense still suffers to much to hope for a high ranking.

Molde managed to return a quite bad start vs Brann into a nice 4-2 win in the end! They are still leader, best attack, best defense and suffered only 1 loss this season! Same missing than last rounds and their last match big comeback from 0-2 to 4-2 win with 3 goals from star Elyounoussi was a message that you should count on them big this season!


Two other ones to notice with big drops:

Finnish Ykkonen: 16:30 Ktp VS Jippo: Very very big drops (ok this league liquidity is about a joke so it moves big and fast). From -1.50 AH to -2 AH! Normal to move as KTP is simply Leader, best attack, undefeated and in solid form, Opponent is 2nd from bottom, worst attack and among the worst defense, very poor level and form. Adding some potential news (hard for these to get local accurate news).

Egypt: 16:00 Al Ahly Cairo VS El Gouna Fc: Strange to see home to drop of average 0.13 pts in European bookmakers and Asians to drop of 0.14 pts on home -0.75 average. Recent news were speaking about numerous doubts over many players, about the lineup of the home team + tiredness, travels in recent days etc. Hard to get all needed infos but excepted some very solid local news by someone well informed, value was and is even bigger now on Away not to lose that easily as news on home side were quite bad… Typical game to avoid or monitor live to see if away won’t have the upper hand but away not to lose as value or skip really… Away +0.25 @2.06 SBOBET for example 1st Half is a great offer in my eyes as such small inside news can make an interesting difference in first half and maybe in the end Al Ahly wins it shortly but 1st Half offer too high in my eye.


Category: Daily Analysis

Written by: Arsene

Date: Jun 12, 2014