13rd June. Market Moves of the Day

WC 2014 19:00 Spain VS Netherlands

TOP today money staked on this game at Betfair ! 1,2M€ on Spain.

Well let say that yes in the end based on what they are doing, Spain should take this one in the end but we don’t feel value on Home good enough to tell you to follow the flow.  This game looking more as one usual Spain tactical possession of the ball and Netherlands relying mostly on their offensive individualities to try to kill on counter or free kick etc.

Spain concede few goals, they are also quite possession ball based but score a lower amount of goal. This one is likely going to be tense and nervous, closed one excepted if an early goal opens it.  Over is the market where people are pushing with almost 0.20 pts down average on O/U 2.00 so sooner or later close to kick off we could get a slight better value on Under but not sure it is worth invest something on a 1St group game… Yesterday as predicted that was Brazil straight win only as bet and AH bet if someone took on them was lucky and undeservedly won in the last min, proving that in the long run, this one would likely be with no value as here we all know how referee also was a joke…

WC 2014  17:00 Mexico VS Cameroon

Here also Money going on Home (711K€) which only represent 63% of the market stakes at Betfair on this one. Over 2.00 also favored in this one with almost 0.10 pts average drops on Over 2.00 in Asia but once again we almost fancy the Under rather.

Mexico is a name that some associate with past performance but recent ones are pure up and down. Internally this team has too many changes as coach position changed many times since 1-2 years and tactical changes from the actual coach seems hardly the right one for these players profile.

In other hand we all know about Cameroon to be probably one of the most solid mental and individual class speaking one in Africa but also one you can’t predict accurately because of strikes, personal probs, internal stories in dressing room and so on….

Unpredictable game where yes Mexico is small fav but if you put a gun on my head I would say a low scoring one with Cameroon avoiding the defeat at worst…  

WC 2014 23:00 Chile VS Australia

1,2M€ on Home and some very early hits killed the odds and AH on Chile when last hours seems to turn a bit and people lay a bit on them.

Clearly, now Chile@1.52 Betfair seems like the one to take. AH-1 on them has been hit early by market early birds but recent hours have bring some good money on home to win and we can see Chile talented team to beat if not trash the quite limited Australian one.

Australia when watching their domestic league, watching them in NT games as well shows that physical approach is about ok, but excepted some old foxes, they barely have a lot of chance against any serious NT team of most globe zone… Chile is a top team in the South America zone behind the big names Argies/Brazilians but far from not being even able to fight quite solidly against many top European side.



Category: Daily Analysis

Written by: Arsene

Date: Jun 13, 2014