18th June. Market Moves of the Day

WC 2014 17:00  Australia VS Netherlands

This one is truly the most staked game at Betfair today ! Almost 4M€ and 3,8M€ are on Away team. Yes very logical to “like” the probability to see Oranje winning this one after their stunning win against Spain. Asia and Europe first slashed a bit of course after the win over Spain but now stable and even rising again last hours, just a readjustment of the probable over reaction right after the win over Spain.

Well Australia surprised me a bit by a better quality overall and more offensive display, more ideas that what I could see from them all the year during. Here the problem is that Holland will have far more individual skilled dribbling guys that Chile but also won’t take them “too easy” as Chile did in the first game by allowing to take the ball in charge when Chile was leading 2-0. I still rate Australia a quite average mix of players (youngs and old) and any quick passing and speedy team like Holland is, should be able to cope with them and beat them by few goals.

Holland surprised quite big by exploding Spain but that was mostly Spain doing Hara Kiri to themselves. Holland will win there really likely and it is just now how strong they will push to take a margin of goals… 1.24 average is quite low on any team in group stage and with Australia a bit better than expected vs Chile, it could be risky not to wait Live to see if as expected, Netherland press mega hard and penetrate quite easily into Australian defense. In this case, the In running -1.50 could be a bet yes.

WC 2014 20:00 Spain VS Chile

1,4M€ on Spain to win out of a total of 1,5M€ total wagered on this game. Hum yes expected bounce back but not sure it is worth 1.6ish odds bet…  

Spain has some players really tired in their mind and body in my eyes, some are still pretty good but it is an overall equilibrium to keep. They exploded vs Netherlands and it is quite short on the bench to cope if an offensive tactic change is needed. Gks are awful and Midfield quiet average to me now in term of form/mental.  

Chile did ok first but then take it too easy and fall asleep after their 260 early lead to give too many control of the game and chances to the limited Australia team in my view. At 2-1 it became clearly too dangerous and they should have finished in 2-2 rather than a late 3-1.

Here it is mostly up to Spain to recover from this very very big mental shock from opening game + in the dressing room and the squad, if some quarrels started to appears or if the group is truly still united… Too many questions to advice any bet on Spain at this price vs a very talented Chile. I am not saying that Spain won’t win, but I would risk money here on them at this price before to see how they perform and recovered both physically and mentally… They will either finish this WC and long successful years and a brand new squad will be needed to get rid of old guys or they will be fired up, professionals and united and will bounce back asap…

WC 2014 23:00 Cameroon VS Croatia

Here everyone hope and see Croatia to confirm their interesting game vs Brazil but without a terror bad referee against them. At least everyone thought Croatia to beat Cameroon but last hours people laying Croatia again…

Cameroon clearly one of the most African talented squad in this WC but as I said in the previous article on them, it is up of their focus, internal united power or if Etoo and his stories and influence already killed this squad. We all have seen a ghost Cameroon in the first game and they should have lost more easily without a veryyyy poor referee (again!!). It was maybe a bad day but no with Etoo not as young and speedy as some years ago, more nervous also, we feel they are lacking of some group spirit…

Croatia will likely go to the throat from the start to finish the Cameroon hopes early, Croatia has this skill and strength, group should be far more united than Cameroon one and Modric should be ready. One worry with discipline was pictures in newspapers about guys doing a bit of fun/fiesta nude in the swimming pool. Who knows if that was only a fun moment nude or if alcohol (and even girls ??!) were involved… In this case it could cost a bit of focus and power maybe..

Hard to know but from the real actual strength and style of play of both, if they are fit and focused as expected, Croatia price going up will deserve a try on them to win this one before the kick off.


Category: Daily Analysis

Written by: Arsene

Date: Jun 18, 2014