25th June. Market Moves of the Day

WC 2014  17:00 Nigeria VS Argentina

Again a big « name » who is the biggest stake of the day in Betfair but i tend to think recently that people making the biggest fav of the day at Betfair are really Joe public… They lost 3 times out of 3 on England to win for example etc…  Today 1M€ on Argentina to win. Ok they could but they played so weak until now and with their qualif in the pocket, Nigeria 2nd placed just would need a draw.

Nigeria played a veryyy poor game vs Iran where nobody understood why none of these teams really attacked strongly as now for example, Nigeria could have been qualified with 2 wins instead of 1 point needed vs one of the biggest “name” of this WC. Surprisingly winning vs Bosnia, the Nigeria players gave themselves a good chance, now it is up to them to play this one cautiously and exploit any chance, but also avoid to play very defensive And calculate that a draw will be ok as Argies could punish them at any moment and break their illusions..

Argentinians quite fortunate to be already qualified after two very poor games. They deserved a draw at best vs Bosnia and hardly were good vs the limited Iran team before that Messi deliver them to a shameful 0-0 in the last min of the game…

People went on Nigeria +1.50 who was of course a bit high AH but now we could be close to a good bet on -0.75 very quickly in the game if Argentina field some more hungry guys than the usual ones who are a bit bored and boring in this kind of scenario…

WC 2014 17:00 Bosnia & Herz. VS Iran

Here also very big move in Asian bookmakers due to the meaningless game for Bosnia when Iran could still dream to qualify IF they beat Bosnia and by several goals if possible +/or if Nigeria lose if possible by big margin to Argentina. Earlier the AH line was of course too big as +1 for Iran with these things in mind but now +0.50 is not tempting to me.

Bosnia is eliminated as failed to win where everyone was expecting them: Vs Nigeria last round by losing 0-1. Iran did average but still better impression than Nigeria in their mutual game in the first round finishing 0-0. Then they played audaciously v Argentina and unluckily for them, allowed a last min 1-0 win to Argentina… I am not sure that quality is gone from this interesting squad and it will be also how coach Susic has still some influence over his group or if they guys already gave up…

I would not touch Iran +0.50 now as it is not safe anymore really..

WC 2014 21:00 Ecuador VS France

Here Also the Asian bookmaker line moved too far and from a supposed average France before this tournament, they become slowly a top 5 fav after two solid games. Asian offering now France -0.75 or -1 which is much high AH for a rotating team tonight. Yes I think they will win this one as few key player will still be on the pitch but how these all guys will play together with the bench ones?

Ecuador did ok vs Switzerland with a 1-0 lead but managed to lose with two goals allowed at the worst possible moment: right after the HT break and in the last min of the injury time in 2nd half!! They have corrected that in a tense game vs Honduras by a 2-1 win and will need to win this one now.  They will be facing a slightly mixed France squad and will go for goals.

France will rotate yes but Some key guys are still expected to be a part of the starting 11 and some bench guys are even better than usual ones to me like Digne instead of this strange and old Evra. France qualified at 99% but here they will still go to prove something strong to the other big fav teams and keep their good streak of result and confidence.

Yes France should win it, but moves already erased the value imo.

WC 2014 21:00 Honduras VS Switzerland

Moves on Switzerland to bounce back big from their poor game vs France where they exploded 2-5 and facing the supposed worst team of this group in quality of level.

Honduras did pretty better and improved at least in the desire to attack vs Ecuador when their first game v France was so poor….. They have such slim chance to qualify that it would not be realistic to believe they will do. Yes but they are real butchers at the back and Switzerland needs a bit more spaces to counter rather than do the game.

Switzerland to be fav ok normal, take them on the actual -1.25 AH never… Yes they could cover it but could rather be a compact defensive wall from Honduras preventing them to score as many goals as they could. And out of nothing, Honduras could even score maybe so…



Category: Daily Analysis

Written by: Arsene

Date: Jun 25, 2014