28th May. Market Moves of the Day

International Friendly : 19:15 Denmark VS Sweden

Best prices were for most of them slashed early on this one. Denmark opened for example in Asia above 2.50 for AH-0.50 which was too high obviously.  Now prices are rather 2.35ish zone for top priced Asians. European markets also suffered drops between 0.06 average to 0.10 pts on Denmark to win. Today at Betfair, it is clearly the top money game with 80K€ in total and 54K€ of them are on Denmark.

Denmark clearly lacked of defensive solidity lately as when they faced the average Hungary and allowed 2 goals (2-2 FT). They will face another Scandinavian team with one monster talent named Zlatan Ibrahimovic who is doing most his team rain or sun but not only. Denmark remain a quite hard team to beat as their recent record is proving it. England beat them by 1 goal some time ago but the rest were some wins over average level team like Malta (6-0) or narrow win over Norway, 2-2 draw vs Italy etc..

Sweden and Zlatan will play with him probably a bit lower on the pitch as sometime he did in PSG this season. Berg and Elmander should be here n front to help him to find spaces or take advantage of his superb eye and ability to put the ball into the small spaces. Swedish problem is mostly a recent coach which changed many things in tactic and what is asked to players on the pitch. Also the defensive part was not that great with often goal(s) allowed.

All this along with the home advantage and a small H2H one gave a quite ok value to try on Denmark earlier, not sure no wit could still be the case of course but it was enough to make markets move toward home win.

Poland - Ekstraklasa - 2013/2014 - Play off  19:30 Lechia Gdansk VS Wisla Krakow

Moves on home of average 0.10 in European bookmaker and almost 1 entire AH line in Asia from -0.50 to -0.75. 14K€ out of 15K€ staked at Betfair on this game are on Lechia to win.

Lechia will miss out Kaniecki (3/- GK) and Bak (8/- CB), they are both injured. Bieniuk (20/- CB) missing by other reason. Sadaev (10/3 CF) is back. Recent good period with wins over Pogon, Legia!! and a draw vs Zawisa to bring them the third spot of this group.

Wisla will miss out top goalscorer and key player Pawel Brozek (32/16 CF) and Glowacki (26/3 CB) the key player of Wisla's defense, they are both injured. Boguski (21/1 ST), Jovanovic (17/- CB), Bunoza (26/- LB), Klaric (2/- CF) and Chrapek (32/3 CM) also injured. Third best goalscorer Guerrier (28/7 LM) and Piotr Brozek (20/- LB) is doubtful. Wisla with only 1 win in last 10 (8 defeats in this period)

Again here the moves made it a bit risky to take but Live should help to confirm the tendency that Wisla is doomed in the head and morale and Lechia should be able to take advantage of this very weak defense (worst of this play off group with 13 goals allowed in 5 games!)

Poland - Ekstraklasa - 2013/2014 - Play off  19:30  Widzew Lodz VS Piast Gliwice

Replay of yesterday game stopped after 10-12 mins of play due to heavy rains. Won’t likely be offered in many bookmakers due to the not usual time to play (about 78 mins) but here what was written yesterday about this game:

Widzew will miss out regular player Batrovic (28/- AM) for injury reason. Melunovic (11/1 ST) and Kikut (8/- RB) are both injured.

At Piast Gliwice there are one doubtful player, Carles Martinez (20/- DM). Piast won their last three matches.

Some drops of about 0.05 in European bookmakers on away team who has still something to play when opponent are without anything to play for !


Category: Daily Analysis

Written by: Admin

Date: May 28, 2014