16th May. Market Moves of the Day

Finland : Veikkausliiga  16:30 Hjk Helsinki VS Mypa

Already some logical drops on away (see here) in European bookmakers to adjust down mostly their prices too high at opening (average from 7.86 to 7.04) when Asian bookmakers are down average 0.16 pts (Avg 2.05 TO 1.89 on +1.25 AH) on this “safer” and likely too big line/price.

Hjk confirmed quite too much what many thought before this season, it won’t be that easy this season and if it happens, it will take time. Hjk quite struggled lately to kill their games or to impress. Quite low scoring numbers, only one game with 3 goals scored for example compared to their supposed power and that was against an “already in chaos “ and quite weak KuPs. They even managed to lose already 2 matches like the 0-1 loss vs TPS who is far from an impressive offensive team! Well Hjk might surely slowly improve and readjust this slow start of the season (they are still 2nd ranked of course but it is more about their playing style rather than position rarely in danger for top spots in such a poor league) but it has yet to be effective and then a “reference” game is yet to be played. Quite important Mdf Tainio is still injured for this game

Mypa at the opposite is leader, and played some quite solid games. Offensively they showed to be ready, defense quite less solid but Vesala injury for example could be one of the reason. Still that they played some high scoring affairs and the last round 0-2 HT to a final 3-2 win over Jaro likely boosted their morale even more! Some other big offensive performance Showtime like vs TPS for a 4-1 win some rounds ago or another thriller comeback from 0-1 HT to a final 4-3 win! Usual long term guys out with Anttilainen, Minkenen and defender Vesala as said above. Kosovo born Denis Adulahi is back and could bring his relatively interesting experience here.

Norway – Eliteserien 18:00 Brann VS Bodo/glimt

One day before the National day is always a round with full stadiums and a lot of joy, likely goals and enthusiasm.

Brann always has a special fan support, a lot of passion but no “pity” when the team is playing crap; here in this festive day, big support and a second win at home this season is expected. Brann played some hot and cold but mostly cold or sleep focus games until now. They could claim for more points in some games where they wasted with childish defensive mistakes some crucial lead in some others. Not yet sure about Jonsson or Demidov to be ready or not but the influential Senegalese Stephane Diarra Badji is back in the midfield to bring his experience.

Bodo resisted well in second half vs Haugesund last round despite a big pressing from opponent who only managed to reduce the score after a good Bodo 2-0 HT lead. Bodo defense still without the two long term injured Valentin and Ruben Imingen suffered quite a lot as the couldn’t keep any clean sheet this season. They even lost all three away games where they allowed each time 2+ goals.

European markets dropped of around average 0.10 pts on home when Asia is down of average 0.12 pts on -0.75 AH.


France Ligue 2 LAST ROUND: 19:30 Tours VS Clermont Foot

Offensive minded and open style Tours was up for a promotion race until a recent bad week’s period with only 2 wins in last 10 games but also a quite disappointing 4 winless games streak at home! Despite this bad end of season, they managed to create a quite big surprise by beating the L1 promoted team Caen away from home last round! This team of Tours is really strange and not a usual one in L2. Very strong attack and open play style, they are among the best attacks of the league (2nd best actually behind Metz) but also a so poor defense that they have a defensive record that is equivalent of most relegation teams in big trouble… So to stay short here, it is all about attack first. We could find the excuse that they lost two crucial defenders and their main GK some rounds ago but the defensive awful record is not only about last rounds... Bouhours, GK Leroy or Milosevic still injured so.

Clermont is another quite strange type of team in this L2! They are the second best defense (behind the very strong Metz) but also the 2nd worst attack of the whole L2 (behind the mega weak and longtime condemned CA Bastia).. Clermont, excepted long term Messi and Lippini injured since many rounds, lost recently quiet few guys like 2 backup in attack (Bettiol and Capelle), Salze in defense, and for this game 4 regulars will be added to the missing list! Defender Imorou, Moulin and Ekobo in the midfield + Main Gk Farnolle! A lot for this usually solid defensive team lacking of creativity in attack and playing quite low on the pitch.

Markets moved toward home team to win which is likely and expected in front of their fans, to “apologize” of such a weak end of season that destructed some promotion dreams some round ago already. Missing and offensive tactic approach vs low scoring + quite defensive one might give about a one way traffic game, just matter of Tours to convert them.

Markets moved down about 0.17 pts on home and Asia of 0.18 pts average on tours -0.50.


Category: Daily Analysis

Written by: Arsene

Date: May 16, 2014