30th June. Market Moves of the Day

WC 2014 17:00 France VS Nigeria

 

Fun to see France more favorite on straight win at Betfair in bettor’s choices rather than Germany when France have -1 AH and Germany -1.50.  6,2M€! on France to win placed at the moment at Betfair! European bookmakers recorded drops of 0.07 ps last hours on France to win as well.

Yes France did showed a good form and style, just a bit less good vs Ecuador especially that they played at 11 vs 10 for some time. Ecuador simply quite well organized and also bloody dangerous on counter so it was dangerous for France to go all-out attack and since there was no huge need for a win, they just wasted some chances and finished in a disappointing 0-0. Today normally starting with Benzema + Giroud to try to get more possibilities in attack as Benzema is more a forward who likes to have the ball and run...


25th June. Market Moves of the Day

WC 2014  17:00 Nigeria VS Argentina

Again a big « name » who is the biggest stake of the day in Betfair but i tend to think recently that people making the biggest fav of the day at Betfair are really Joe public… They lost 3 times out of 3 on England to win for example etc…  Today 1M€ on Argentina to win. Ok they could but they played so weak until now and with their qualif in the pocket, Nigeria 2nd placed just would need a draw.

Nigeria played a veryyy poor game vs Iran where nobody understood why none of these teams really attacked strongly as now for example, Nigeria could have been qualified with 2 wins instead of 1 point needed vs one of the biggest “name” of this WC. Surprisingly winning vs Bosnia, the Nigeria players gave themselves a good chance, now it is up to them to...


24th June. Market Moves of the Day

WC 2014 17:00  Costa Rica VS England

Yes as every match of England in this WC, people (i think mostly in UK) at Betfair back them to win. 2,1M€! On their victory today! Previous two rounds, other bettors laying them should have been very happy. Will they again? At the total opposite, Asian bookmakers also offered early, the Costa Rica +1.25 AH are now only offering +0.75. It is due to their solid results in their two first games beating Uruguay 3-1 and Italy 1-0 when England simply out.

Costa Rica did pretty well and defense has been quite solid finally when we thought it could have been hard. Uruguay was leading them 1-0 but finally exploded, Italy was outplayed by them and without a real idea how to break their defense, Italians couldn’t find the way to nets..

The value was clearly on Costa Rica +1.25 to me even if both team...


23rd June. Market Moves of the Day

WC 2014 21:00 Cameroon VS Brazil

Biggest money today at Betfair is on Brazil to win. 1,9M€ on their victory. Seems logical yes but at such low price and with the really unpredictable face they showed in their matches until now, it will really depend on their today motivation and efficiency who seems to be the key factor for them (for many teams but they got so many chances vs Mexico that this crazy superman gk saved…)

Cameroon showed nothing and hard to see the coach not to put a list of bench guys there after that started humiliated him and his work. Awful games, fight among players from the same team on the pitch (at the tv then!) and nothing appearing to be professional approach. The coach for sure is now fired up and then we should see a mixed squad but with probably a bit more desire than previous 2 games.

Brazil will win and be...


22nd June. Market Moves of the Day

WC 2014 17:00  Belgium VS Russia 

Belgium got a lot of stakes on them today (the most staked team in Betfair today)with around 1,3M€ on them to win.  Asian bookmakers moved biggggg against them in recent hours and we have the feeling that it is far too much to be able to catch almost 2.20 on Belgium!

Belgium disappointed vs Algeria but Algeria did it very compact in the backline first and punished them on their first chance of the game and then in the end it likely helped Belgium who could get the ball control and attack, attack and finally turn around a 0-1 deficit into 2-1 win in the end.

Russia was really uninspired and poor vs a very weak Korean generation and proved once again they are nothing anymore.

Here the move against Belgium and the idea that Belgium could face a less defensive team who is somehow quite limited...


21st June. Market Moves of the Day

WC 2014 17:00  Argentina VS Iran

Almost 2,3M€ on Argentina to win here. Priced 1.16 around it seems an eventual combo material rather than single for many but well a value is a value and which bank would give you 16% ;-)

Argentina did the job (by taking 3 pts vs Bosnia) but not the job by how fans expected them to do it… Bosnia showed some good tries and Argies will try here to punish as early as possible this very limited Iran team who has the stupid idea to play a sleepy game vs Nigeria. A really bad result in the end because it was clearly a 6 pts match between the two smallest teams of this group. And it seems that both was too limited to try to take a win and keep thin hopes to create a miracle in one of their two other game… Now we have Iran who will try to resist to an early goal when Messi and co will go for it..

Only...