23rd June. Market Moves of the Day

WC 2014 21:00 Cameroon VS Brazil

Biggest money today at Betfair is on Brazil to win. 1,9M€ on their victory. Seems logical yes but at such low price and with the really unpredictable face they showed in their matches until now, it will really depend on their today motivation and efficiency who seems to be the key factor for them (for many teams but they got so many chances vs Mexico that this crazy superman gk saved…)

Cameroon showed nothing and hard to see the coach not to put a list of bench guys there after that started humiliated him and his work. Awful games, fight among players from the same team on the pitch (at the tv then!) and nothing appearing to be professional approach. The coach for sure is now fired up and then we should see a mixed squad but with probably a bit more desire than previous 2 games.

Brazil will win and be qualified and they will also rotate but Cameroon should hardly avoid them to take a win here. Some time could be given to few guys and it is a chance for them to please the coach and gain a starter position? Depends who and where but at least they should try.

Ah line moved already earlier after Brazil struggled to beat Mexico and Cameroon to confirm in their 2 matches to be one of the less motivated and united team of this WC. From -2 now it is around -2,25 with increased money last hours on Brazil.

Yes they will win it but I wouldn’t place any bet here especially that now with AH moves you have to be sure they will win by 3?

WC 2014 17:00 Australia VS Spain

Quite solid moves toward Australia to reduce the supposed gap and lose by 1 goal max if they lose. Yes Spain disappointed so big and Australia pleasantly surprised (even myself who is not used to see them playing such well despite watching them very often). That is why bettors are now between the idea that doomed Spain will explode completely (meaning disappoint again as everyone has no morale anymore) or wake up for their honor or what can be saved and for fans let say.  

Australia played pleasantly Vs Chile but pushing and missing chances (ok because hot 2-0 leading Chile stopped to play) and kept pushing after the 2-1 score reducer. They would have deserved to punish Chile for this laziness but at the opposite, Chile scored a last min goal to stop any hope… Second game was superb and very entertaining! Holland was supposed to walk over them after a stunning win over Spain but they were pressed soooo biggg by Aussies! Australia for sure have a big mental and is not afraid of anyone, they have pressured and walked themselves on Holland most of the game before to going down with such efforts and tiredness + lack of experience killed them as Holland finally won 3-2!

Spain again disappointed especially because finishing skills and mental aren’t here. Chile with fresher morale and legs punished them 2-0! They have everything to prove/save/do here and no idea if they will manage to do it. I would say that away +1.5 has still some value but I ignore how Aussies legs will cope with the two previous big amount of energy spent for nothing as both ended as an harsh defeat.


WC 2014 17:00 Netherlands VS Chile

Chile favored here with moves from +0.25 to DNB favorite now.

Yes Chile impressed in both games so far despite some dangers taken after an early and easy 2-0 lead vs Australia, they stopped to push and were closer to a disappointing 2-2 draw rather than their late 3-1 win. They beat Spain 2-0 with a solid defensive solidity and a lack of efficiency from Spanish guys but yet it is more offensively that we feel them quite dangerous + a rather solid midfield also more than a compact and unbreakable defense.

Holland will rotate and likely miss Van Persie but their offense is still oriented counter attacking killer style! It was easy vs Spain, hard and almost undeserved vs Australia. Still that here they will go for goals again as Chile will do also.

Over would be the best bet if any but a lot of people are also on it and value is simply too thin.

WC 2014 21:00 Croatia VS Mexico

Here Mexico in slightly favorable position with 1 point more than Croatia is supposed to play compact and carefully when Mexico will rely one more time on their superman GK Ochoa! AH line moved from +0.25 to DNB fav on Mexico!

Croatia did pretty ok vs Brazil in opening of this WC and would have deserved better both from the referee who has been horrible and from their own chances too. They will have to do well here to get a qualif, meaning to win.

Yes but Mexican team despite a not that impressive talent in front, already managed to score (yes even 2 valid goals disallowed vs Cameroon in the first game). They still deservedly won over Cameroon but only 1-0, second game vs Brazil has been of course far more dangerous and their gk clearly saved them dozen times! Not a shame but well it prove to me also how their attacking line is not that trustable imo and I feel a disciplined Croatia could maybe snatch something interesting here. 

Category: Daily Analysis

Written by: Arsene

Date: Jun 23, 2014