21st June. Market Moves of the Day

WC 2014 17:00  Argentina VS Iran

Almost 2,3M€ on Argentina to win here. Priced 1.16 around it seems an eventual combo material rather than single for many but well a value is a value and which bank would give you 16% ;-)

Argentina did the job (by taking 3 pts vs Bosnia) but not the job by how fans expected them to do it… Bosnia showed some good tries and Argies will try here to punish as early as possible this very limited Iran team who has the stupid idea to play a sleepy game vs Nigeria. A really bad result in the end because it was clearly a 6 pts match between the two smallest teams of this group. And it seems that both was too limited to try to take a win and keep thin hopes to create a miracle in one of their two other game… Now we have Iran who will try to resist to an early goal when Messi and co will go for it..

Only AH market moved a bit (since opening early odds not too much last hours) from -2.25 to -2 on Argentina. It seems about what a lazy

WC 2014 20:00 Germany VS Ghana

Germany 2nd most trusted team at Betfair with around 1M€ stakes on their straight win here. Asian bookmakers slightly going up on -1.50 AH on Germany (0.08 pts last hours). Seems ok to me as Ghana is an ok team, likely less a chaos one than many others African in this WC but with Germany it is always all about defense. Attack usually going well, defense stupidly allow goals to most teams around the world. So this AH to be beaten is about this point only. I doubt they would lose here, but by which margin?

Ghana Lost by a stupid way vs Usa with a goal after few secs of play allowed already to make their task very hard, then they came back great in the game, levelled to 1-1 but allowed a late 2nd goal… Now they will try for sure to exploit the German defensive weakness btu keeping in mind their fragile defense too, not easy…

WC 2014 23:00 Nigeria VS Bosnia & Herz.

Here there was a veryyy big move but after the first game of Bosnia who pleased a lot of people. The AH was on 0 (DNB) and exploded later to be now at -0.50. It was a logical very good value early, now hardly any value but Bosnia should do the job.

Nigeria has some good names and talent but all together they rarely do as good as expected. Simply one of African syndrome of lack of focus, some inside problems and quarrels and then it end up often as a mess…

Bosnia did pretty well vs Argentina and would have almost deserved a draw rather than a loss 1-2. They have a quite interesting squad and if they don’t go too lazy or taking it too easy, they should prevail here vs a probably too much unorganized Nigeria.

Category: Daily Analysis

Written by: Arsene

Date: Jun 21, 2014