18th May. Market Moves of the Day

Italy Serie A Last round 19:45 Fiorentina VS Torino

Very big money today on Torino to win and be back in European competition 20 years later! 132K€ out of 138K€ placed on this game are on Torino to win. It is some quite strange moves of money knowing that Asia and European bookmakers have not registered anything special on it or some moves at the opposite (0.05/0.07 pts drops on home in Asian bookmakers).

Diakite and Wolfski already missed last round and are still out here, adding Ryder suspended and Defender Savic injured now, Gomez rated doubtful in attack. Rosati in the nets last 2 games and disaster start vs Sassuolo for a 3-4 defeat did it about ok last game with no goal allowed for a short 1-0 win over Livorno. Now regular GK Neto is finally back in the nets and that is a good news. Viola has nothing special to play here, maybe just avoid finishing by a defeat in front of fans.

Torino is the best team positioned for the last European cup spot this season. They better win here to be sure of it, in other case, too many scenarios could pull them out of it with Parma just behind and possibly taking a win over  poor and doomed Livorno.

Same long term missing at Torino but sadly for them superb striker Immobile is out here and with 22 goals in 33 league games, he will be badly missed! Riccardo Meggiorini will be in charge of his replacement and with no goals scored so far, it is the last chance for him to bring something to Torino this season, Cerci will help him in front of the attack.


Italy Serie A Last round 19:45 Milan AC - Sassuolo

Another strange game with no special moves on home in European bookmakers (mostly due to the low price for their victory here) when Asian bookmakers recorded almost an entire AH line move on home (from -1.50 to -1.75 now Handicap on Mlian).

Milan has here maybe a very slim chance to get 6th spot meaning European cup if all teams in front struggle and they win for example.. Let say miraculous scenario needed. But well after the really disappointing last match when they failed miserably at Atalanta 1-2, they will have a win at stake to try to be forgiven a bit by fans of their very average season. Birsa and Saponara still out since few rounds will have defender Bonera joining them on the sideline. Gk Abbiati out last game will be back here.

Sassuolo with a very bad season and nothing to play anymore + still 5 players at least injured here. Safe now after winning 4 of their last 6 games (losing only 1 of them), they will try to spoil even more the last match of the season for Milan at home...


Sweden cup final 16:00 Helsingborg VS If Elfsborg

Neutral pitch for this cup game where Elfsborg got money on them logically. Mostly based on difference of level and form this season + recently, About 0.07 pts drops were recorded on Elfsborg when Asian bookmakers moved the AH line on Elfsborg from about 1 entire AH line from -0.25 To -0.50 now.

Helsingborg in trouble already this season with only 3 wins and 5 losses already. They failed to impress and to show a solid level of football. They won 1-0 over the very poor Bromma last round but, if some think they are putting all efforts on this cup and that is why the league results are yet not good enough, it remains uncertain and even in this case, throwing away so many points already for a cup could prove very costly if they lose here.

Elfsborg clearly a top level team both in cup and league lost last round at AIK but this time clearly favored cup final game to come. They were without a loss in so many games before the “sacrified last game” loss that there are no worries at all to have about their form and level of play.



Category: Daily Analysis

Written by: Arsene

Date: May 18, 2014