19th May. Market Moves of the Day

Italian Serie B  17:00 Bari VS Cittadella

Here our main match today mostly because of the quite big money involved here in Betfair + some Asian dropping for such small league.

51K€ staked so far on Bari to win here out of a total of 55K€ wagered. Around 0.07 pts down in European bookmakers on home when Asia dropped of average 0.09-0.10 pts on Bari -0.50. Not huge drops but added to the money placed in Betfair, we can see as yesterday difference between Asia almost not dropping and Betfair huge stakes placed, that Italy is a special league to read and here we could have something to read..

Bari has huge objectives to play for in the last 2 rounds (+ this one who is the third one then). 1 point below promotion playoff, they can start to pressure big the team(s) ahead as with a win here for example they would steal the last promotion spot position to Spezia who is in a bit less solid form than them recently. Yes Bari won 4 in a row now but even more impressive 7 wins last 8 games! They have let Carpi dominate them last match for example to punish them a clinical way and took a 2-1 win. They quite trashed Juve Stabia or Ternana recently scoring them 3 goals each. Logical to see people favoring them here. Let’s don’t forget that Bari got already 4 points deducted in start of the league as punishment by Federation so they should be even higher in the table. Only long term Matias Alonso is out here when 3 forwards are back ‘especially best scorer Galano) which is a huge boost!

Cittadella fighting for relegation escape themselves, founded a good form as well until a 0-2 loss at home vs Palermo last round. Cittadella is usually quite average on the road and barely find the net 1 per match average not more. They are in quite huge trouble at the back with long term inury of defender De Leidi, they got Pecorini lately injured, and for this game they added both defenders Coly and Marino! In total 4 defenders out!


Sweden – Allsvenskan 17:00 Orebro VS Gefle If

Persson and Lumbana still injured for home team since few rounds likely didn’t helped to play as solid as expected (at least in the middle high positions). They get now their main GK Jansson injured! They just lost logically 1-2 vs IFK Goteborg and have not won in 3…

Gefe is quite defensive minded and rather solid because of that when playing this kind of team and when they have not to make the game. At home, Gefle struggle a bit as opponents wait for them, here they will once again come and wait and that will suit their conservative approach. Only 1 loss (and 3 draws) away from home this season for them. Defender Portin is suspended here. They want and could start to look to ameliorate their actual relegation fight ranking as they played recently quite some bigger team and now, with some middle table ones who are slightly underperforming or weakened, there is room for hopes to get points again.

Betfair markets went in bigger %/sums on away team to win rather than draw or home team. Quite surprising if looking only at the table but with all tings explained above, we can start to think that European bookmakers decreased odds average from 4.40 to 3.84 when Asian bookmakers got some clever bettors hitting the safer +0.50 AH on Gefle not to lose (+0.50) and markets went down in bigger proportions with average drops from around 2.02 to 1.85!


Poland Ekstraklasa playoff group 16:00 Ruch Chorzow VS Wisla Krakow

Ruch with still long term Gieraga injured and recently Mrowiec injured as well. They will add to this list, Jakub Kowalski who is quite useful in offense phase. Ruch played a quite serious season finishing on the 3rd spot. They are also sitting on the same spot in this playoff group. A 3-1 win over  Zawisza last match (helped likely by a red card for opponent just after their 1-0 opening goal to cruise and get a bigger win).

Wisla played a quiet disappointing end of season! They got a superb defense (best of Poland Ekstraklasa along with superb Legia (same number of conceded goals). But end of season was a chaos! They won only 1 game in their recent 10 matches losing 7 of them! They are getting back the interesting Lukasz Gargula here who scored 9 goals this season + Glowacki in defense. Boguski and Bunoza still injured both.

Market logically favored recent form and overall strength thinking that something should be broken in the heads/dressing room of Wisla. Probably the last chance for them to get any hope for Europe and save their season here and some bookmakers prices were a bit too high as 2.3ish zone is surely a quite interesting value here (before drops now lower of course).


Category: Daily Analysis

Written by: Arsene

Date: May 19, 2014