22nd May. Market Moves of the Day

Brazil : Campeonato Brasileiro 23:30 Goias VS Santos

Goias moved of 1 entire AH  line from opening odds to be now -0.25 in the 1.9+ zone when the early opener were on DNB (AH 0).

Goias started quite ok this season with only 1 loss in 5 games.  Best defense yet of Brazil first Div with 2 goals allowed in 5 matches. They are “losing” one guy per round until now average with 5 injured now. But no key ones it seems and they are managed to cope without these recently as results showed it.

Santos a big name who struggle big until now in Brazil and situation at the table is simply 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss in 5 games. Not enough points taken in 5 games and clearly a necessity to recover form that. Yes but for this game they are in trouble without 8-9 players injured or called in NT teams…

Betfair is not fan of these markets (I mean here Betfair users) but Asia quite reacted early on this missing news. Justified or not regarding the available players level compared to the value or not now, FT result will tell it to us as Brazil and south America like Colombia or Bolivia, Chile are used to these mixed squads, reserve squad or missing in number and outcome is sometime quite surprising.


Sweden – Allsvenskan 17:00 Mjallby Aif VS Malmo Ff

Ok 38K€ in Betfair is not a so big amount but such medium size league and in such calm day… It is a perfect game where bettors thought they might be a value as Malmo is a top team, among fav to be champion when Mjallby is far from this level..

Mjallby withut few defenders and Inglesten in offense. Not what we should call key injuries and with 2 defenders back for this game (Thorisson and Ivanovski) they might way not so doomed in the backline. But reality is maybe not that true.. They are mega struggling this season with only 2 wins in 10 games. They were very fortunate to see their last match opponent to be lacking of nerves, unefficient as Brommapojkarna was quite pushing them badly, Broma hit I don’t remember exactly but I think twice if not more the woodwork, they missed a penalty kick and of course got punished by Mjallby who was quite lost on the pitch but took a hold up 1-0 win.

Now it is another story when facing a team like Malmo. Leader and best defense of the league, Malmo lost only 1 game this season but also showed a great level of play and mental. They took quite some latteeee mins to kill the suspense vs Halmstad last round with an early 1-0 lead but they only finished the game suspense with two goals at 90 and 93th mins and even allowed a 94th min goal… Well it could have been a thriller if it has happened when the score was only 160 lead for 90 mins.. So now time for them to focus and punish once for all and as early as possible, this quite weak Mjallby.

Only one thing prevent some people to go for Malmo excepted the fact to play away from home, the H2H is in favor of Mjallby.


Category: Daily Analysis

Written by: Arsene

Date: May 22, 2014