WC 2014 19:00 Spain VS Netherlands

TOP today money staked on this game at Betfair ! 1,2M€ on Spain.

Well let say that yes in the end based on what they are doing, Spain should take this one in the end but we don’t feel value on Home good enough to tell you to follow the flow.  This game looking more as one usual Spain tactical possession of the ball and Netherlands relying mostly on their offensive individualities to try to kill on counter or free kick etc.

Spain concede few goals, they are also quite possession ball based but score a lower amount of goal. This one is likely going to be tense and nervous, closed one excepted if an early goal opens it.  Over is the market where people are pushing with almost 0.20 pts down average on O/U 2.00 so sooner or later close to kick off we could get a slight better value...

World Cup 2014: Group A : Kick of 20:00  Brazil Vs Croatia

Brazil odds went down slightly of average 0.03 pts on home in European bookmakers when Asian Bookmakers went down of average 0.17 pts on Home -1.50. Some trusted tipsters or usually clever bettors have already hit earlier the home team mostly based on Croatia defense quality and magical attacking poser that Brazil have. 3,8M€!!! staked on home at Betfair, huge moment, huge game, huge name and many out founded also straight win on home as medium value early (yes even 1.05 could be solid value if your fair estimation is 1.01 for example ;-)

Yes that will all or nothing, glorious start or giant pressure already depending of the outcome here.  Brazil well know a bit lazy and disappointing when it is friendlies or a bit more meaningless games like recently vs Serbia where they hardly won...

Finland – Veikkausliiga 15:30 Mypa VS Sjk

One of the « star » drop today is Mypa (as Italian one just below dropped much more but far from value now because of the size of the move)! Top 3 team vs promoted small club. European bookmakers moved average of 0.14 pts on Mypa to win when Asian bookmakers moved down of average 0.15 pts.

Mypa still without the defense scoring talent Vesala this season (2 goals scored in 3 games played) and as last rounds Salmikivi is also out in offense, now adding Anttilainen in this same part of the pitch. These two offensive guys are not considered as key players and both have not scored yet. Mypa just lost to SJK 0-1 away from home last round but a different scenario is expected here, at least different outcome. Mypa was better, got plenty of corners, shots but SJK taking the lead at 36^th min...

Norway : Tippeligaen 16:00 Molde VS Brann

Move down in Molde odds logically both for each team ranking, form and even H2H (which mostly favor the hosting team in every game between these two. European bookmakers dropped of about 0.05 pts average when Asian bookmakers moved down average of 1 entire line from -1.50 to -1.75 for the early opener in the market when others still moved down on this same -1.75 AH of 0.11 pts average.

Molde will miss out second best goalscorer Gulbrandsen (7/5 FW) for injury reason. Hoseth (4/- CM), Pettersen (-/- GK) and Gatt (-/- RW) are both injured. Molde in great shape with only 1 loss in the last 10 rounds (9 matches in a row without a loss until today), they have not loss yet at home this season + are easily the best defense of the league but the best attack as well!

Brann will miss out regular midfielder Barmen (10/-...

Finland – Veikkausliiga 16:30 Fc Inter VS Tps

Here some small adjustments (maybe some late opposed moves as well) done on odds for home 0.01 average on European bookmakers when Asian bookmakers adjusted down average of 0.05 already. We can expect people once again to fade the really poor TPS here when Inter was really expected to do better this season and yet have ONLY lost 2 games out of 9 played but managed too many draws (5).

Inter Turku will miss out regular player Kauppi (6/1 CM) because he is suspended. Laiho (-/- CM) and Aho (1/- RB) are both injured. Gruborovics (8/2 DM), the key player of midfielder section, and regular left back Lehtonen (7/1 LB) are both doubtful.

TPS will miss out regular player Agyiri (10/- CM) because he is suspended. Okaru (-/-  FW) and Mäkinen (-/- CM) are both injured. TPS lost their last four match...

Calm day today but few International games + few small leagues..

International Friendly : 21:45 England VS Honduras

Clearly the favorite bet of today list for the Betfair market in term of money placed on HOME (129K€) and quite logical (even if it is more to put in a double rather than bet it at lowish odds alone). Asia And European bookmakers have not recorded drops as this one was quite clear to anticipate and estimate.

England drew vs Ecuador but already the head in the WC and earlier beat the reserve team of Peru 3-0 and Denmark 1-0 the game before. Honduras will suffer big here + in WC as they are only defending and playing with one good head skilled guy in attack final point. They lost badly vs Turkey or weak Japan so what with English guys who are maybe not going to trash them as not needed but anything else than a win by Uk guys...