11th June. Market Moves of the Day

Finland – Veikkausliiga 15:30 Mypa VS Sjk

One of the « star » drop today is Mypa (as Italian one just below dropped much more but far from value now because of the size of the move)! Top 3 team vs promoted small club. European bookmakers moved average of 0.14 pts on Mypa to win when Asian bookmakers moved down of average 0.15 pts.

Mypa still without the defense scoring talent Vesala this season (2 goals scored in 3 games played) and as last rounds Salmikivi is also out in offense, now adding Anttilainen in this same part of the pitch. These two offensive guys are not considered as key players and both have not scored yet. Mypa just lost to SJK 0-1 away from home last round but a different scenario is expected here, at least different outcome. Mypa was better, got plenty of corners, shots but SJK taking the lead at 36th min in the first half allowed them to resist until the end. Defense is one of the weak side of Mypa but since SJK attack is the worst of the league, it should be hard to see another win from Sjk here or that will be another lead taken first and defense (as their defense is very compact (2nd best in the league). Mypa desire of immediate revenge + the very solid record they have (without a loss at home this season) will prevail ?

Sjk is another team when they are away from home, winless this season they will sit back and counter here again. They managed to win like that vs Mypa in the previous game, failed but only lost 0-1 each time vs HJK or Jaro lately.

Italy Serie B Playoff: 17:00 Cesena VS Modena

Huge drops on away of 0.50 pts average in European bookmakers when Asian bookmakers went down of 1 AH line from +0.25 to DNB on away.

Cesena with many players outs but also many who are back. Previous encounter finished by a bit fortunate (or courageous) 1-0 win by Cesena who scored first, were under a big pressure from Modena the whole game but resisted until the end even picking up a red card at 67th min!

Modena power is the attacking side, and they will try their best here to use it as with 1 goal deficit and playing away from home in this 2nd leg, not many options for them! Same missing than last round + the coach who is suspended. 

Finland – Veikkausliiga 15:00 Tps VS Ifk Mariehamn

Not sure why massive drops on home to win here, likely judged « worth a shot » but not that a safe investment… They dropped of average 0.30 pts when Asian bookies dropped of 1 AH line from +0.50 to +0.25.

Tps is the worst attack and the worst defense of the league. They showed let’s call it slight improvement despite their 9 losses in 11 games when resisted very long to Lahti and then leading Inter Turku surprisingly 1-0 before to lose finally 1-2.

Mariehamn is the same weak defense but attack just slightly better. Finally they lost “only” 5 of their last 10 games and scored on a regular basis. Forssell, Solignac or even Diego Assis are supposed to be quite ok for this league and to help this team a bit more. I would really not touch either of these two teams but such moves always means to see live how it goes to decide if anything is worth, but a good one to monitor live likely as I would be sure the upper hand will be for the “fancied” team in the end..

Finland – Veikkausliiga 15:30 Rops VS Hjk Helsinki

Here Asian bookmaker dropped slightly more with more liquidity and Betfair recorded some solid 29K€ for this type of league on HJK.

Rops still without 3 players as last rounds and this small roster seems to suffer. 2 wins over average defense of Jaro and poor bottom ranked TPS out of last 10 games is only what they could do. Like TPS, they have a quite weak attack with 5 goals scored in 11 rounds and will look for a miracle vs HJK giants who are leader, the best defense of the league + the 2nd best attack.

Hjk still without 3 players as last rounds but the bench is deep. Mika Lehkosuo mens are experienced or talented young, Taino, Savage helping the “on fire” Macoumba to run the offensive bullets and it works quite fine after an average start of season.  7 wins in a row, best defense, 2nd best attack and best away team are for example what Hjk is made of atm!


Category: Daily Analysis

Written by: Arsene

Date: Jun 11, 2014