Calm day today but few International games + few small leagues..

First we have the biggest market today in term of money placed which is : 19:00 Ecuador VS England

415K€ placed in this game and 360K€ are on England to win! Nothing surprising as they Uk people are well represented in this bookmaker and then England as most teams is supposed to take this one very seriously as the last “pre” world cup match. Get in mind the necessity also to be careful about injuries etc, so all in all no special moves there excepted a little bit on draw but nothing special to note here out of this game to be supported by people today and likely mostly UK ones.

Finland : Veikkausliiga 15:30 Lahti VS Tps

Moves here on home quite...

Italy Serie B playoff Tue 17:00 Crotone VS Bari

70% of the stakes in this game were placed on DRAW. Only few K€ so it is not as strong outcome as in the past weeks where some games likely made some arrangement. Here no reason for both to agree on a draw. Playoff played in one leg, value for me if any is on away, far more interesting and good overall team and even recent form proved it when Crotone got luck that Palermo allowed them a friendly draw for example + some disappointing matches before that, for me almost a miracle that they got playoff! European bookmakers registered also some drops on DRAW with average drops from 3.07 to 2.89. Asian Bookmakers almost no moves.

Crotone will miss out Kone (-/- CB) because he is called up to the national team. Ligi (28/1 CB) is injured since the end of April.

Bari is a more talented team, in recent far...

Sweden : Allsvenskan 17:00 Aik VS If Brommapojkarna

2^nd most in form team last 6 rounds behind the hot Malmo going to hosts one of the worst away team and also one of the poorest team of this division until now. Price have not moved much but some 12K€ were placed on Betfair on home to win. Quite logical/usual stuff in a calm day and period as now to see people backing favs especially in such opposite form/level difference.

AIK played a quite disappointing defensive game last round versus the very strong Malmo! They allowed Malmo to take the game in charge first and Malmo even hit the woodwork in the first half. But AIK took an interesting 2 goals lead quickly around mid – game with the score opener first by Markkanen just in the last seconds of the first half, then added a second goal on 58^th min! Yes but sadly for...

Sweden – Allsvenskan 13:00 Helsingborg VS Falkenbergs Ff

Quite solid moves on away team! Betfair for example went from 7.00 earlier to around (.00 then now a bit up but still quite a big difference from opening odds. Asian bookmakers went up of almost an entire AH line –from -1 on home to -0.75 now meaning that people push on away +1). European bookmakers also up average of 0.07 on home

Helsingborg struggled a lot this season and only did well in cup but lost in Final of this cup. Now back since few weeks in league and fight against relegation is the actual matter and Helsingborg has clearly showed a quite poor display. They will be missing a bunch of guys here and that won’t help. They will miss out top goalscorer Accam (8/5 LW) because he called up to the national team. Accam is key player at Helsingborg. Larsson...

International Friendly 18:30 Portugal VS Greece

Biggest game with money involved at Betfair today with majority of money on Portugal to win but also opposite trends in Asian bookmakers for example with moves on Greece +1 to now mostly Greece +0.75 (1 entire AH line move down) and in European bookmakers Greece price went down average from 6.86 to 5.47.

Logical move as Portugal ok did fine recently if we only look at the results but they played some quite vulnerable teams. C.Ronadlo also helped much his quite average team to skip some embarrassing situation; he will be missing here + pepe who is also another charismatic leader. WC coming in few week snow and hard to see this team already average without these two players, to play full of energy and risk any injuries so close to WC.

Greece simply will try to do something here with these 2 missing for...

Italy as usual in end of season got mega big stakes in Betfair on some outcomes and we could see every year + last rounds they are often accurate… Let see some of  the biggest impacted games by moves:

Italy - Serie B 19:30 Palermo VS Crotone

Incredible 250K€+ on DRAW at Betfair here!

Palermo without few players still as last round exactly + Lafferty and Maresca not sure to be fit.

Crotone in the last positions of play off for promotion and can be reached and pulled out of play off if they lose and Bari for example wins in this last round.

Scenario: Here Palermo who is already champion of Serie B since many rounds is supposed to be ok to “help” Crotone to share the 1 pts each and then help Ternana to get out of the danger of Bari eventual wins.