27th May. Market Moves of the Day

First of all, today biggest money staked at Betfair was clearly on Japan (97% of this game stakes meaning 301K€!) but no special interest to explain much about it because of both team with different form, stakes for this game, changes in lineups make it a likely outcome winner for Japan yes but probably mostly people take home to lay it at few points after few mins live and take few % profit back/lay. But people will never learn about Japan to struggle under this coach! All their last games were poor, disappointing and everyone think Japan as a force when a player like Honda is clearly over rated by too many people, even an old fox Shinji Ono playing in Australian league is far more interesting that this selfish Honda who went in all clubs of the world because thinking money first and his own mentality is not good.

International Friendly 20:00 France VS Norway

Asia dropped from average 0.10/0.11 pts on France -1.25 AH when European bookmaker have not registered that much bets on home because of the low odds offered there. 111K€ out of 131K€ staked on France to win at Betfair represent about 85%.

France taking this one to prepare WC and few starters are slightly injured LLoris and Ribery or just arrived to training after few extra days after CL wins (Benzema + Varanne). But they supposed starting squad looks like a good A’ team composed of professional minded players who will do their best. They could even take this match more seriously than some “stars” who usually pay it with some laziness or lack of motivation.

Norway without Elabdellaoue and Skjelbred and as most Scandinavian teams are always motivated for this type of games, don’t count on them to play without any desire.

If any value in this game it is more likely in running on Over 2.00 when the line AH on France is a bit high especially after the drops and likely not worth the risk.


Poland - Ekstraklasa - 2013/2014 - Play off  19:30 Slask Wroclaw VS Cracovia Krakow

Very small market at Betfair so it is logically that Slask who is fav here got only 4K€ about on them (which still represent about 84% of the total staked on this game). In European bookmakers, Home got about 0.08 pts drops when Asian bookmakers got the same on -0.50 AH.

Slask will miss out Przybylski (2/- FW) and Hateley (12/- RB) both for injury reason. Adamec (2/1 CB) and Holota (20/2 CM) also injured, but long time ago. Kokoszka (31/1 CB) and Grodzicki (21/2 CB) are back, ready to play. They are leader of this play off group with ZERO goals allowed and no loss until now after  5 rounds! Attack is not impressive with just average 1 goal per game.

Cracovia will miss out Szeliga (24/- DM), Nykiel (13/1 RB), regular player Dabrowski (30/1 CM) and Kita (17/3 CF) both for injury reason. Zytko (31/- CB) is back, ready to play. They have only 1 win in these playoffs and managed a draw against Korona so they are quite in the bottom zone without power after 5 games.  Their defense is the worst of play offs and they could suffer a low scoring loss here if stats of average scoring abilities of Slask with a solid defense + a probable not pushing forward mentality.

Some notes on other games:

Finland Ykkonen 16:30 Hifk VS Jippo: Small drops from average 1.55 to 1.42 on Home in better form AND ASIAN dropped from -1 to -1.25 (same price range) so quite a solid drop! but maybe more in news of these two teams (hard to catch accurate early news in this div)

Poland - Ekstraklasa - 2013/2014 - Play off  19:30  Widzew Lodz VS Piast Gliwice

Widzew will miss out regular player Batrovic (28/- AM) for injury reason. Melunovic (11/1 ST) and Kikut (8/- RB) are both injured.

At Piast Gliwice there are one doubtful player, Carles Martinez (20/- DM). Piast won their last three matches.

Some drops of about 0.05 in European bookmakers on away team who has still something to play when opponent are without anything to play for !

Same here with Poland - Ekstraklasa - 2013/2014 - Play off  19:30  Podbeskidzie VS Zaglebie Lubin

Home has still few things to play for when away team is already without anything to play.. 0.04 pts drops average on Home in European bookmakers and 0.05 in Asian ones.

Podbeskidzie will miss out Blazek (5/1 CF) and Sloboda (26/2 CM) both for injury reason. Adu Kwame (19/- LB) is back, ready to play.

Zaglebie will miss out their two top goalscorers. Key player Piech (28/10 CF), Abwo (27/6 RW) and Vidanov (17/- RB) are both injured. Janoszka (6/- LW), Famulski (-/- CM) and Kowalczyk (1/- CF) also injured, but long time ago. Papadopulos (23/1 CF) is back, ready to play.





Category: Daily Analysis

Written by: Admin

Date: May 27, 2014