20th May. Market Moves of the Day

Romania Liga I Final round 17:00 Steaua Bucuresti VS Otelul Galati

Odds dropped on Steaua in European bookmakers of 0.10 pts average when in Asia, 1 entire AH line move down was done from -0.75 to -1.

Steaua will rotate a bit their squad here very likely with cup final coming in few days. Still that their bench is deeper than today opponent. Steaua finished champion with the best defense and attack of the league, only 1 defeat all season!

Otelul German coach Lienen also without few players, will decide in the last mins maybe to give some chances to players who played less this season (rotate a bit ?) They finishing now in the mid table and with the 2nd worst defense of the entire league + away from home, they will have some hard moments to live here likely.

All in all it is a typical game where a mixed team of Steaua should beat Otelul especially when visitors could be a mixed team and with some injuries here.


Sweden – Allsvenskan 18:00 Hacken VS Kalmar Ff

Strange opposite moves of money again here as in Italy lately for example. Hacken quite ok team but with a very weak defense is expected to go all-out attack as often with the two interesting Makondele and Kabir. They still are without 3 not significant medium term injured players as last rounds so nothing new. Solid home record without a loss yet and they only not won game was ve the solid AIK!

Kalmar serious top position contender is the only team without a loss yet. The defense is working perfectly (best defense of this division) and mostly Soderqvist in front is doing what is needed to take point(s). Added to their medium term usual 4 players out already last rounds, defender Thorbjornsson will be out here because of an injury.

European bookmakers registered some drops on away which could appears a bit normal as Kalmar is logically in the long run, a better strength team that the 4.4 to 5+ odds offered earlier on them in this match. But Betfair received the biggest amounts of money today for the entire day list of game with around 14K€ placed on home out of 18K€ placed in the match. It is the today match where the most money was placed at Betfair but strangely at the total opposite of Asian bookmaers who moved down the AH on home from -0.75 to -0.50 but also European bookmakers who received solid bets on away to win straight! Likely a wrongly settled price/line in bookmakers in some solid money punter heads but it doesn’t explain the Betfair money placed on home…


Norway : Tippeligaen 18:00 Sogndal VS Brann

Here some solid drops in Asia + Europe + Betfair (who got 10K€ on home). Likely a mix of tradition that home team in this fixture take the victory, Brann awful away results all time and their supposed struggling season to come with a limited squad in experience. Some trusted tipsters or paid service over the internet also followed the way to pick up Sogndal as too highly priced here earlier which can explain some parts of the moves as well.

Sogndal was already without Skaasheim in defense since few games, now adding another defender (Valsvik) injured. Sogndal escaped to a disaster after leading 2-0 a bit against the run of play last game vs Aalesund when their  opponent managed to score 2 late goals and pressed very strongly for more. Still that this team is not that impressive at all yet and should soon pay more for the “luck” they got recently to take a bit more points than expected.

Brann usual solid home team and poor away, changed a bit their tendency this season it seems, at least playing a bit differently under their coach from Sweden. Yes but it is still quite worrying about relegation danger for all the season it seems as their squad has a quite average/low quality. And if they tend to be able To snatch few more points away from home yet, they are still very limited and as they are now quite vulnerable at home (where they were quite reliable previously), it make it very complicated… Last match at home vs Bodo lost 1-2 was poor. Bodo walked a bit on them the first half for example with very few danger from Brann in answer… Brann was missing already 2 defenders and 1 midfielder since few games, lost their main GK 1 round ago, and now adding to these 4 players Frederik Haugen in the midfield line! 5 players out for such an average quality team and bench, it is quite a lot..

Category: Daily Analysis

Written by: Arsene

Date: May 20, 2014