17th June. Market Moves of the Day

WC 2014 23:00 Russia VS South Korea

Biggest moves overall today with average 0.17 ps down in European bookmakers when Asian bookmakers moved down average of 0.10 pts last hours when opening odds were even like 0.40 pts higher on Russia or so! 1,1M€ wagered at Betfair on Belgium to win tonight (which is the second biggest stake behind Belgium).

Russia under Capello is rather more solid in defense a expected but still a bit short in front. Despite scoring often goals and no loss recorded since a very long time (10+ games), they also rarely played solid or let say serious level opponents in these all games undefeated. Russia expected by people to beat the big down in quality Koreans there and they should yes, price is now hardly worth a shot but Live it could be if Russia is showing what we expect from them.

South Korea is the the past team we remember for some with strong pace, serious tactical schemas respect and talent. They qualified to this WC thanks to a really average zone of qualification but any serious team of most groups in this WC should beat them. It is up to take the ball possession and punish them quite early to avoid a compact team defending style with some quick transition attacks.

WC 2014 Tue 17:00 Belgium VS Algeria

Biggest stakes at Betfair today are on home here!! Maybe slight risky to take such short odds on home versus an ok potential team which is coached by sorcerer Vahid! He usually works quite well with hard working mentality teams or warriors (he did in some clubs or countries but failed when people are stars mentality and doesn’t accept his very very strict mentality about work, ethic and respect). Belgium impressed many persons in qualif phases and some so called experts even predicted a big long successful road here, talent is here and nobody can say the opposite, now we all know also that talent is good, but find out how to use it at his best and cope with big ego guys or lazy star brains is another story… Belgium if serious, focused and do his job united, should win here and go out of this group, but well we could see back in November some disciplined (even if rather limited level in real strength comparison to me) teams like Japan could beat them or speedy Colombia. It was very hot vs courageous Tunisia where Belgium showed imo his real face: Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde all or nothing because of players mentality…

Here we have a quite well balanced squad for Algeria with a talented coach at least for medium or small size teams with few starlet mentality otherwise it go to the clash too quickly with his own personality. Algeria showed what Vahid asked for and praying for all his life = focus and results. He got quite good ones with some other clubs/countries even in Africa but each time he faced the well know strange African mix of fix/unstable political and not trustable people stories… Fired after a mega bunch of good results for obscure reasons because in some countries, it is more like political things even to be the coach of this or this team and you have to listen to the owner, chairman or uncle of this or this person otherwise his influence will get rid of you.. Well Algeria will for sure exploit any weakness or “too easy” mentality of Belgium if they are falling into laziness or lacking of serious. If not, Belgium should be able to take this one in the end but I doubt that will be so easy..

Finland : Tue 15:00 Jjk VS Haka

Here quite solid move on away side following some “experts” voices and the believers that Haka who is supposedly mega underperforming + unlucky will get finally rid of this when meeting the limited JJK team. Small drops in European bookmakers of about 0.05 pts on away when Asian moved quite much more with average 0.08/0.10 pts on away -0.50

Pouttinen back when Markkula will be out, let see what they can do. I remember Haka big domination vs PK35 last round but they lost 0-1 in the end because of their inability to score. Their main problem seems this attack lacking of efficiency first. They are showing quite well, results doesn’t come yet, JJK at the opposite showed nothing, and got likely the chance to face Oulu last round which is in quite weak form to win 3-0.

If Haka wants to keep hopes alive to promote but first to avoid a shame and veryyyy disappointing season, it is time to do it with this kind of opponent!


Mostly away moves moves with AH help on Brazil game vs Mexico. Even people saw as us that Brazil was fortunate to finish with such score vs Croatia when Mexico should have easily won. Struggling Brazil vs solid Mexicans, not sure the AH is worth investing money and probably more chance that Brazil confirm to struggle at least a bit…

Category: Daily Analysis

Written by: Arsene

Date: Jun 17, 2014