19th June. Market Moves of the Day

WC 2014 20:00 Uruguay VS England

Biggest stakes at Betfair today are once again on England With 1,6M€ on their victory over Uruguay (once again as England trusted at Betfair for each their games, probably due to the big amount of Uk guys among Betfair customers). In European bookmakers it is also moving down but a more shy size as it is about 0.06 pts down only.  The interesting trend is how England was settled earlier when odds opened before WC and especially before their 1st match and the 1st game of Uruguay. England was +0.25 AH now -0.50!

This after a quite interesting game where they lost to Italy 1-2 but showed much more than we could think from them despite Rooney being still goalless… In other hand, Uruguay disappointed so big in their opening game by losing from 1-0 lead to 1-3 in the end vs Costa Rica. They were expected to win before this match when odds were published so that is why this big turn in odds from +0.25 to -0.50 on England.

England supposed to win vs poor Uruguay but I would not be that sure as at the opposite of Spain that I rated already “mentally doomed” before yesterday game and in end of era, I see this Uruguay still capable of something here. England is still not a that dangerous team for the National team performance overall as they always were quite limited or let say average and lacking always of something. Long debate about their championship with few English guys in their top teams… No idea but simply the NT doesn’t click to me as they should.

To me if there is any value (but I don’t advice anything here as strong recommendation btw) it would be Uruguay +0.50 or nothing. Such move and real strength of the two team doesn’t justify the so big AH move…

WC 2014 23:00 Japan VS Greece

Japanese a bit like Australia (once again yesterday) were pleasant surprise compared to many games they played earlier and showed a bit better level. Ok their defense is suffering vs Taller and/or physical squad and Ivory Coast was one of them.  Japan took the lead but could not keep it and lost in the end 1-2.

Greece exploded vs Colombia 0-3 but they got some chance to exist but didn’t manage them. They remain one of the average teams of this WC among the “medium level squad list” and it is their probable only chance to grab something here vs Japanese who will open the game.

Japan to open the game, Greece should as well so the Over 2.00 seems the cleverest bet (some on Japan DNB could be if the logic of real strength is respected but not always the case).

WC 2014 17:00 Colombia VS Cote D Ivoire

Here hard to know what will happen. Asia moved a bit toward away team +0.50 and it is tiny but logical.

Colombia score seems a bit too much compared to what they showed and how opponent let them do their “life”. They are talented, fast but on a true strength comparison, Ivory Coast can’t be rated like that!

The problem is that Ivory Coast is anther African team meaning up and down all the time because too much mess in the dressing room, internally and focus, or personal discipline… Ivory Coast at least beat Japan so they are up to try to get anything else than a loss here as they should be able to beat Greece.

Tight one to predict and since no big moves excepted on early market (but readjusted later) I would not advice anything here but hardly trust Colombia to be a trustable team in the long run (and since no African teams are in this WC….)



Category: Daily Analysis

Written by: Arsene

Date: Jun 19, 2014