20th June. Market Moves of the Day

WC 2014 17:00  Italy VS Costa Rica          

Biggest today stakes at Betfair and it is on Italy to win. 1,6M€ on them. Seems a lot but yes I see them wining by a short margin maybe but still take it. Now mostly +1 value on Costa Rica as odds moved already too much but Italy to win… So maybe better to see live how it goes.. What was interesting is the move from -1.50 to now -1 or even -0.75 on Italy… Hard to don’t see few value in Italy live if they tart slowly this game with a cautious focus to get good odds after 5-10 mins.

Italy did serious as often vs England in the first game to win it 2-1. They are with a nice mix of old foxes as always young Pirlo or crazy but talented Balotelli and the probable next Pirlo: Veratti for ex. They will take this one seriously and will not rush or let as many spaces as Uruguay did when they allowed Costa Rica to kill them despite leading 1-0 and finally losing 1-3 in the end. Italy is among the pure defense focus then attack after style in the world since centuries and even if their style changed with years, they are still not all out attack and probably that it helps to get also results…

Costa Rica can thanks Uruguay to have let such spaces to them but hard to see Italians doing the same so what ? Costa Rica will try on counter but no bi spaces, on free kicks and so on ok, and ? Tight and cautious one likely where Italians as usual will do the needed job and take 3 points in the end…

WC 2014 21:00  Switzerland VS France 

France too much supported in my eyes even if they could win there. Value is likely more on Swiss + AH or Under, DRAW but I am not sure about France to take this one easily at all. They should have crushed this very poor Honduras reduced quickly to 10 men and who never tried to attack the whole game. It is just all in defense with one guy alone in front and France could go and go again on flanks and crossing easily but Giroud was missing then with his head power or a more adapted style than Benzema who likes more to go with the ball a bit like at Madrid (who still scored 2,5 goals (as woodwork then gk putting the ball just behind the line is like half Benzema goal). So what ? Benzema + Giroud would have been even better imo to get few crosses into the nets.. Ok they won 3-0 but I feel anyone else from best 2 best teams of each group would have destructed Honduras 5-0.

Switzerland showed a quite disappointing 1st Half vs Ecuador and was behind at HT 0-1. Then they managed to level quickly and finish the job at 93th min… Yes as Ecuador became less fit in 2nd half and they got may spaces to counter too but France is another type of team still..


Compact vs Compact defensive approach first and then talent will do the rest along with efficiency. I vote for France but value is not here anymore yet after 0.25 move on France and not confident enough to back Switzerland +0.75.

WC 2014 23:00 Honduras VS Ecuador

All was said a bit above about both. Ecuador favored by bettors which is logical. Honduras showed just to be poor and very very low on the pitch + many fouls are expected from them here. Maybe will they try to be a bit less defensive but I doubt it could help them vs the fast Ecuador team. Excepted a dull game where they would resist to all Ecuador tries, I don’t see how they could escape to a defeat here. Now, with the moves, not sure it is worth investing money pre game and live should be a very good option especially if Honduras starts again very defensive.

Category: Daily Analysis

Written by: Arsene

Date: Jun 20, 2014